‘Recession’ is a term being bandied around by economists. Views vary, with some expressing optimism and others scepticism regarding the future of some of the world’s largest economies. 

So, what predictions can be made about these nations’ destinies? 

What is a recession? 

Two consecutive quarters (half a year) of negative economic growth (GDP). 

Will China go into recession? 

The Chinese property market has significantly slowed (and devalued) in recent months. Property accounts for around 30 percent of China’s GDP and a significant proportion of household debt. These factors, when combined with escalating tensions with western powers over Ukraine and Taiwan, and a drop in consumer confidence, are contributing to a climate of uncertainty.   

Whilst these factors paint a somewhat bleak economic outlook, China’s economy has undergone continuous growth for many years, and it may well be time for a small lull. GDP growth currently sits at 5.2%.  


Despite significant challenges, a recession in China is unlikely. 

Will the United States go into recession? 

Unlike many other economies, the United States continues to avoid recession. This can be credited to the significant fiscal support provided to individuals and businesses throughout the pandemic, which has had a cushioning effect on consumer spending and economic growth.  

Another consideration are long-term fixed mortgages, which are less susceptible to aggressive interest rate hikes trying to combat inflation.  Economic growth has also been supported by a significant increase in migration.  


Recession is unlikely.  

Will Australia go into recession? 

Like the United States, Australia has also (thus far) averted a technical recession, which can largely be credited to the significant fiscal support during the pandemic, and an influx in migration post-pandemic. It has also adopted a similar monetary policy to the US, which is proving effective in combating inflation. Economic growth remains sluggish (but positive) whilst inflation continues to fall. 


Recession seems unlikely.  

Will Japan go back into recession? 

Japan’s economic woes have persisted for decades. The economy has been relatively stagnant since the asset bubble collapse in the 1990s, which had a crippling effect on domestic growth. In March 2024, Japan finally ended its 8-year period of negative interest rates, which were increased to a range of 0-0.01% per cent. Also in March, some of Japan’s largest companies gave workers the largest wage hike in 33 years (5.28%). Other challenges include an aging population and declining productivity. Japan’s path to recovery will be slow.  


Whilst not technically in recession, Japan’s future growth remains uncertain.  

When will the UK exit recession? 

The UK’s economy has been under strain for several years due to a combination of factors. The labour market has been particularly affected by decreased immigration, flowing from the Brexit referendum. In an effort to curb inflation, the UK has also put in place strict fiscal and monetary measures combined with controversial welfare policies, which have significantly decreased consumer spending.  Wage growth also continues to lag behind inflation, and the ongoing Russian-Ukraine War continues to fuel cost of living challenges.  


The UK is in a weak recession that will likely end soon.